Oscar Nomination Predictions
Here’s my predictions for this Thursday’s Oscar nominations, with a brief commentary for each category. These are my predictions, not my personal preference.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Wicked
Conclave
Emilia Perez
The Substance
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
September 5
Anora, The Brutalist, Wicked, Conclave and Emilia Perez have been scoring multiple precursors and seem to be locked. The Substance, A Complete Unknown, and Dune Part Two have been placing most places and seem highly likely. It is the last two spots that are up in the air. The Producers Guild of America (PGA)nominated A Real Pain and September 5 for its last two slots. Last year the PGA matched the Oscar nominees 10 for 10, but most years it matches 8 or 9. The other two most likely candidates for the last two slots are Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. The last two slots are usually reserved for smaller films with the most passionate fans, and I am guessing those two films this year are Nickel Boys and September 5.
Best Director
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Jacques Audiard (Emelia Perez)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Edward Berger (Conclave)
The Academy’s director’s branch tends to be more auteurist than the Directors Guild of America. The DGA nominated James Mangold for A Complete Unknown, but the best picture contender which is more the work of an auteur is The Substance. The other four match the DGA nominations.
Best Actress
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Cynthia Errivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Madison, Moore, Errivo and Gascon all are the leads in likely best picture nominees, and an omission of any of them would be a shock. There are about 8 or 9 realistic possible choices for that fifth slot. I am thinking the international members are enough to lift BAFTA nominee Jean-Baptiste into that final spot.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Daniel Craig (Queer)
Like actress, the first four seem locked and the fifth spot is up for grabs. Hugh Grant has received a surprising amount of attention for Heretic. I think Sebastian Stan’s Golden Globe win for A Different Man will siphon votes from his performance for The Apprentice. Therefore, I am predicting Screen Actors Guild nominee Craig will secure the fifth slot.
Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Saldana and Grande are locked, and one of them will win. The other three slots are up for grabs. I’ve chosen performances from likely best picture nominees, and I think the other most likely nominee is Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown. The other two most likely are Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson and Jamie Lee Curtis for The Last Showgirl. Both are hurt by their films being unlikely to be nominated in any other category.
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Culkin has won almost every precursor and is the heaviest favorite of the four acting categories. Pearce, Norton, and Borisov are in likely picture nominees. The two strongest contenders for the fifth slot are Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice and Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing. However, nine-time nominee Washington has been nominated for lesser films before, and I think he gets nominated mostly for being one of the best actors alive.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
The top three are all likely best picture nominees. While Wicked and Dune: Part Two are also possible in this category, neither are seen as picture contenders due to their scripts. So I am taking two films fighting for the last picture slots which are known for having excellent scripts.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
September 5
The first three seem locked, and The Substance seems very likely. given it won at Cannes for its screenplay. The strongest contenders for the final slot are Hard Truths, Challengers, and All We Imagine as Light, but I changed my prediction to September 5 after it got the PGA nomination.
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Conclave
Maria
Last year’s surprise nominee for cinematography was El Conde, which was directed by Pablo Lorrain and shot by Edward Lachman. Maria was directed by Pablo Lorrain and shot by Edward Lachman. The American Society of Cinematographers nominated seven films, the five above plus Wicked and A Complete Unknown. The wild card is Nickel Boys, with its unique first-person camerawork.
Best Costume Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Gladiator II
The other three main contenders are Conclave, Maria, and A Complete Unknown. I admit Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is a bit of a gamble, but it is Colleen Atwood, who has won this category four times.
Best Editing
Anora
Dune: Part Two
Challengers
The Brutalist
September 5
Other Best Picture contenders who are possible editing nominees are Conclave, Emilia Perez, Wicked, and A Complete Unknown. I’m going for the flashier editing of Challengers and September 5 instead.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Substance
Nosferatu
Wicked
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Dune: Part Two
The other two strong possibilities are Emilia Perez and A Different Man. I really don’t think the work in A Different Man is anything special, but I might be blinded by personal bias (I did not care for the movie).
Best Production Design
The Brutalist
Wicked
Nosferatu
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
The other major contender is Gladiator II, but I thought the major budget was doing too much of the heavy lifting, while other big budget films Wicked and Dune: Part Two had some impressive tangible sets.
Best Score
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Challengers
Conclave
The Wild Robot
The other two primary contenders are Nosferatu and Wicked. I think the musical heavy lifting of Wicked are done by its songs, not its score.
Best Song
El Mal (Emilia Perez)
Kiss The Sky (The Wild Robot)
Mi Camino (Emilia Perez)
The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)
Harper and Will Go West (Will and Harper)
All of the songs in Wicked are also in the stage musical and are not eligible. Emilia Perez, on the other hand, is a musical with all original songs, so I think both its songs get in. Kiss the Sky is also locked in due to how it is used in The Wild Robot. Diane Warren gets nominated every year, so her mediocre song The Journey will get nominated. I’m gambling on the Will and Harper ending song because I was charmed by it, and none of the other possibilities seem very strong to me. I will be delighted if Compress/Repress from Challengers gets nominated, but full out rock songs rarely get in.
Best Sound
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II
I thought the best sound design I heard this year were in Civil War, Furiosa, and Blitz. The first two missed the Oscar shortlist, and Blitz I think was hurt by most people seeing it on Apple TV. I saw it in a theater and was blown away by its design. It is still the mostly likely to get in over these five, but I think it misses.
Best Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Gladiator
Better Man
The other possibilities are Twister and Alien: Romulus, which are good but not groundbreaking. The Rock DJ sequence from Better Man is now on You Tube, so you can check it out and see why it would be a deserving nominee.
Best Animated Feature
The Wild Robot
Flow
Inside Out 2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Memoir of a Snail
This might be the easiest category to predict. Gold Derby gives all the other animated films 100/1 odds.
Best Documentary Feature
Daughters
No Other Land
Sugarcane
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Dahomey
On the other hand, this is a notoriously hard category to predict. The other three primary contenders seem to be Black Box Diaries, Porcelain War, and Will and Harper. I think Will and Harper is hurt by being a documentary involving a celebrity. The other acclaimed celebrity documentary, Super/Man, didn’t even make the shortlist.
Best International Film
Emilia Perez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
I’m Still Here
The Girl with the Needle
Kneecap
The top three are the locks. I think the other three primary contenders for the final two spots are Vermiglio, Flow, and How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies.
I am not predicting the shorts categories. I haven’t seen them either.